TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction

Highlights

User’s Guide

Employment and Annual Average Job Openings by Major Occupational Category

Employment by Major Occupational Group Chart

Average Annual Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Chart

Top 40 High Demand Occupations

Selected Fast-Growing Occupations

Selected Declining Occupations

Occupational Education and Training Requirements Categories

Methodology

Statewide Projections in PDF Format

Introduction

The tables in this publication were prepared to assist in the planning and developing of educational and training programs to meet future employment needs and to aid in the guidance and counseling of young people making career choices.

In an effort to provide career planners with beneficial information, the Department of Labor developed the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program.  This is a Federal -State cooperative program involving the Employment and Training Administration, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and various state agencies.  The projected employment needs presented in this publication represent one aspect of the program, the National-State, Industry-Occupation Employment Matrix.

The projections in this publication cover the state of Alabama.  In developing the employment projections, the following assumptions concerning economic conditions were made:

The industry employment in the state of Alabama will increase by 14.39 percent over the projection period which equates to an average rate of 1.35 percent per year.

Major events, such as a widespread, long-lasting energy shortage or a war will not significantly alter the industrial structure of the economy or the rate of economic growth.

Current technological, scientific, and social trends such as values placed on work, education, income and leisure will continue.

This publication, based on the total employment concept, includes wage and salary employment, self-employed, the unpaid family members of a family business, agricultural workers, and those employed in private households as domestic workers.

Because of the limitations inherent in any set of occupational projections, it is important to emphasize that the figures in the tables be viewed more as indicators of relative magnitude and probable direction than as exact estimates of occupational demand.

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Highlights

Alabama workers will increase to about 2.4 million jobs by the year 2014.

Approximately 524,000 people will be employed in various Professional Occupations,

204,000 in Healthcare Occupations,

611,000 in various Service and Sales Occupations,

346,000 in Office and Administrative Support Occupations,

138,000 in Construction and Extraction Occupations,

22,000 in Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations, and

533,000 in Installation Maintenance, and Repair Occupations, Production Occupations,
            and Transportation and Material Moving Occupations.

Computer and Mathematical Science occupations are expected to continue to grow faster than other occupational groups due to advancement of computer technology.

Healthcare occupations will continue to grow at a fast pace due to the aging of the state’s population.  Registered nurses are listed as the number one occupation on the high demand list for the state, and Home Health Aides are third on the list.

Office and Administrative Support occupations are expected to grow at a slow pace of .74% per year over the period.  Nevertheless, this group of occupations will produce over 10,000 job openings, with 70% of the openings due to turnover.

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry occupations are expected to drop as the state continues to move away from agriculture and toward a service oriented economy.

Alabama’s projected annual average growth rate of 1.35% has the state projected to grow slightly faster than the national average growth over the projection period.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics has projected employment for the nation to grow at a rate of 1.23% each year over the period 2004 to 2014.

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User’s Guide

What measures are the best indicators of occupational job demand?

1. The total average annual job openings.
2. Employment change expressed as a percent.

Total average annual job openings indicates the magnitude of the expected labor demand, while the percent change in employment shows the direction in which the employment level for the occupation is moving: rising, shrinking, or remaining at the current level.

What generates job openings?

1. Employment growth (new jobs).
2. Occupational separations – leaving the labor force and inter-occupational transfers.

What causes employment growth?

For most occupations, industrial growth has the single greatest influence on the growth in the occupation’s employment.  Industrial growth occurs when the demand for goods or services rises and, in turn, the demand for workers to produce those goods or services also rises.

Technological change can raise the demand for some skills while eliminating the need for others.  While this shift is taking place, demand in the industry as a whole may be increasing or decreasing.

New ways of doing business, such as self service, out-sourcing, 24-hour operations or employee leasing can alter the demand for labor.

What is the impact of labor force separations?

When a person leaves the labor force (death, moving out of state, retirement, etc.) a job opening occurs when the departing worker’s position is vacated.

Do workers tend to leave some occupations more than others?

Every occupation has a different separation rate.  More desirable occupations as well as those which require extensive education or training tend to have lower separation rates.

What factors determine the number of job openings for an occupation?

1. The overall number of people employed in an occupation.
2. The occupation’s separation rate.
3. The rate of employment growth or decline for the occupation.

Which factor is most important?

The number of people employed in the occupation and the separation rate tend to be more important determinants of the number of job openings than the occupation’s growth rate.

What is the best way to compare one occupation with another?

Look at the total average annual job openings, not just openings due to growth.  A large number of job openings increases the chances of finding a job in the occupation.  Also, look at the percent change in employment.  A high percent increase in employment in an occupation that employs relatively few workers indicates entry into the occupation may be difficult, however, opportunities for advancement may be excellent.

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Methodology

The 2004 to 2014 projections of occupational employment presented here were prepared utilizing a matrix industry/occupational concept as introduced in Tomorrow’s Manpower Needs, BLS Bulletin 1606 and its supplements.  Four general steps were followed: (1) Collection and estimation of occupational staffing patterns by industry, (2) Development of projections of wage and salary employment by industry, (3) Matrix development of matching occupational staffing patterns to the projected industry growth (or decline), and (4) Calculation of estimates of replacement requirements by occupation.

The matrix system operates under a microcomputer based software system developed and technically supported by the Utah Occupational Projections Service Center, Utah Department of Employment Security under contract with the United States Department of Labor.  However, the selection of the final methodology and responsibility for the validity of the projections rests with the Alabama Department of Industrial Relations.  Occupational data was checked for confidentiality utilizing a BLS developed program, which screens OES program occupational summary estimates through a set of rejection criteria.  Occupations, which fail to meet the criteria, were flagged for print suppression and do not appear in this publication; however, published data for summary level occupations do reflect employment for suppressed occupations.

Collection Activities

The Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program generates occupational estimates on an industry-by-industry basis to determine job needs for occupational guidance and training purposes.  Employers who have been randomly selected and stratified by industry and size provide occupational classification from a listing of detailed job descriptions.  Nonagricultural employment is collected and estimated over a three-year cycle by state employment security agencies.  Periodic publications of occupational estimates by industry are released by the Alabama Department of Industrial Relations after each survey is completed and analyzed.

To elicit a high and accurate response, the collection instruments are tailored to the industry’s occupational structure.  Although each survey questionnaire is limited to a maximum of 225 occupations, total employment is collected in each industry.  Data on small or unusual occupations are collected in appropriate residual categories, such as “Engineers, all other” and “Extraction workers, all other.”

More than 850 specific occupations have been collected for almost 400 detailed industries.  The industries are categorized by the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) at the two- and three-digit industry level.  The sample is drawn from the Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW), an employment report of the unemployment insurance system.  Self-employed, unpaid family, agricultural and domestic workers are not included in the OES Survey.  Occupational staffing patterns for these components are derived from 1990 census data.

Development of Industrial Projections

Employment levels for each industrial series were developed using time series analysis and are projected to the target year of 2014.  The final 2014 projected matrix is a blend of the occupational structure of each industry applied to the projected industry trend to 2014, as exhibited by historical employment movement at the detailed industry level.

The estimates from the various OES surveys are adjusted to total employment for a single, standard reference date – in this case, annual average 2004 employment.  In this procedure, OES survey estimates are applied to industry controls from the Current Employment Statistics Program (BLS-790 series).  After adjustment to annual average industry data, the survey estimates are processed through a computer system that interprets the analysts’ decisions to disaggregate the residuals and regroup the data into the matrix format for the base year (2004) for approximately 290 detailed industries and 80 summary level industries.

Matrix Development

To develop cross-industry estimates for each detailed occupation, the occupational content and size must be disaggregated from the residual category.  For example, the total number of accountants would be the sum of accountants specifically collected (most industries) plus the accountants estimated in the “all other professional” category in remaining industries.  Since the content of the residual categories differs from industry to industry, the estimation of total employment by occupation through simple aggregation of the survey data is not possible.  Employment in the residual categories must be partially disaggregated to specific OES survey-based matrix occupations before cross-industry estimates can be tabulated.  In the disaggregation process, the residuals are proportioned out using State specific occupational patterns in the 2000 Census-based matrix.

The final matrix occupation list contains almost 770 detailed occupations and just over 100 summary level titles distributed among approximately 400 detailed industries based on industrial definitions contained in the 2002 North American Industry Classification System.

The survey occupational titles are arranged into the Standard Occupational Classification System (SOC), implemented in projections for the first time in the 2000-2010 round.  Each occupational title is assigned an SOC code based on this classification system.  In past projections rounds, occupations were classified using the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) coding structure.  Due to the change in coding structure this set of occupational estimates and projections may not directly compare with past projection publications.

Replacement Demand

The replacement demand data shown in tables are estimates of the average number of workers that will be required each year during the projection period to replace workers who die, retire, or leave the labor force for other reasons, such as disability or family responsibilities.  These estimates are based on separation rates by age and sex derived from national mortality and working life tables, which were applied to the age and sex distribution of the State’s labor force by occupation.  The resulting separation rate for each occupation was applied to the interpolated employment level for that occupation

The rates also reflect job openings due to occupational mobility.  Statewide rates were used in estimating replacement needs for MA’s.

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